Market Scoreboard
Cross-market equity performance in common (USD) terms, built on the OECD's monthly share price indices and ECB exchange rates. The tactical layer of the Big Cycle backdrop: which markets are pulling ahead, which currencies carried or cost you, and what runs above or below its own long-run trend.
As of 2026-05: South Korea leads over one year (+167% in USD terms), India trails (-16%). Everything here is monthly and USD-denominated; nothing on this page moves intraday.
Scoreboard
USD terms · price indices, dividends excluded · sorted by 1y| Market | 1y | 3y pa | 5y pa | 10y pa | FX vs USD 1y | vs 15y trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Korea | +167% | +39% | +12% | +12% | -8% | +143% |
| China | +32% | +10% | +2% | +4% | +6% | +13% |
| Japan | +27% | +17% | +7% | +7% | -10% | +27% |
| United Kingdom | +19% | +13% | +7% | +4% | 0% | +21% |
| United States | +18% | +15% | +7% | +8% | - | +12% |
| Australia | +17% | +10% | +3% | +5% | +12% | +1% |
| Eurozone | +17% | +15% | +7% | +8% | +3% | +14% |
| India | -16% | +2% | +3% | +8% | -10% | -13% |
Windowrebased to 100 at window start · drag to zoom (min 3y) · double-click resets
Performance, USD terms
monthly · rebased to 100 at window startAbove or below trend
latest local-currency index vs its own 15-year log-linear trendUnited States
+12%
China
+13%
Eurozone
+14%
Japan
+27%
India
-13%
United Kingdom
+21%
South Korea
+143%
Australia
+1%
A price far above its own trend has historically meant thinner forward returns; far below, fatter ones. This is a mean-reversion gauge, not a forecast.
Methodology
- Equity series are the OECD's monthly share price indices (Financial Market dataset) fetched via the DBnomics API - broad national market price indices in local currency, OECD data CC-BY 4.0. They exclude dividends, which understates total returns, most for high-dividend markets (Australia, UK) relative to the US.
- USD terms use ECB reference rates (Frankfurter API), month-end. "FX vs USD" is the currency's own one-year move against the dollar; positive means it strengthened. The OECD indices are monthly averages while FX is month-end - a mixed convention, second-order at this timescale.
- Returns over 3y/5y/10y are annualised; 1y is the simple year change. All in USD terms, price only.
- The valuation gauge is a documented proxy: no open, licensed CAPE or P/E source exists across these markets (Siblis forbids reuse, MSCI requires registration), so each market is measured against its own 15-year log-linear trend in local currency. Deliberately slow and blunt.
- Anti-fad rules, enforced: monthly data only, windows never shorter than 3 years, no intraday anything. China's series starts 1999; its "All" window is shorter than the others.
Sources
- indices - OECD Financial Market dataset (DSD_STES@DF_FINMARK) via DBnomics API, CC-BY 4.0 - index, local currency, monthly
- fx - Frankfurter API (ECB reference rates) - currency units per USD, month-end
Generated 23 Aug 2026. Refreshed monthly. Data to 2026-05.